34% of economists expect a recession in 2021

/ AP

Trump, advisors try to defuse recession fears

A growing share of U.S. business economists think a recession is unlikely before 2021.

In a report on Monday, 38% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said they believe a slowing economy will tip into recession in 2020. That's down from 42% in a survey taken in February. Only 2% of those polled expect a recession to begin this year, while roughly a third of respondents foresee one hitting in 2021.

One reason fewer economists expect a recession next year—the Federal Reserve's move last month to dial back interest rates for the first time since 2008. Many forecasters and investors predict the central bank will further ease monetary policy over the rest of the year.

Trending News

President Donald Trump has dismissed concerns about a recession, offering an optimistic outlook for the economy, saying on Sunday, "I don't think we're having a recession." A strong economy is key to the Republican president's 2020 reelection prospects.

Economists polled by NABE have previously expressed concern that Trump's tariffs and higher budget deficits could eventually dampen the economy.

The Trump administration has imposed tariffs on goods from many key U.S. trading partners, from China and Europe to Mexico and Canada. Officials maintain that the tariffs, which are taxes on imports, will help the administration gain more favorable terms of trade. But U.S. trading partners have simply retaliated with tariffs of their own.

Little hope for a trade deal

Trade between the U.S. and China, the two biggest global economies, has plunged. Mr. Trump decided last Wednesday to postpone until Dec. 15 tariffs on about 60% of an additional $300 billion of Chinese imports, granting a reprieve from a planned move that would have extended duties to nearly everything the U.S. buys from China.

The financial markets last week signaled the possibility of a U.S. recession, adding to concerns over the ongoing trade tensions and word from Britain and Germany that their economies are shrinking.

Economists worry Trump's trade war with China could slow economic growth

The economists surveyed by the NABE were skeptical about prospects for success of the latest round of U.S.-China trade negotiations. Only 5% predicted that a comprehensive trade deal would result, 64% suggested a superficial agreement was possible and nearly 25% expected nothing to be agreed upon by the two countries.

The 226 respondents, who work mainly for corporations and trade associations, were surveyed between July 14 and Aug. 1. That was before the White House announced 10% tariffs on the additional $300 billion of Chinese imports, the Chinese currency dipped below the seven-yuan-to-$1 level for the first time in 11 years and the Trump administration formally labeled China a currency manipulator.

Resilient economy

As a whole, the business economists' recent responses have represented a rebuke of the Trump administration's overall approach to the economy.

Still, for now, most economic signs appear solid. Employers are adding jobs at a steady pace, the unemployment rate remains near a 50-year low and consumers are optimistic. U.S. retail sales figures out last Thursday showed that they jumped in July by the most in four months.

The survey showed a steep decline in the percentage of economists who found the $1.5 trillion in tax cuts over the next decade "too stimulative" and likely to produce higher budget deficits that should be reduced, to 51% currently from 71% in August 2018.

First published on August 19, 2019 / 8:47 AM

© 2019 The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

NASA program "OMG" trying to find out how fast Greenland's ice is melting

Ice lost in Greenland means higher sea levels around the world. "Oceans Melting Greenland," a NASA program in its fourth year, is studying the melt.

48M ago 0819-ctm-greenlandicemelt-doane.jpg FILE PHOTO: Iranian oil tanker Grace 1 sits anchored after it was seized in July by British Royal Marines off the coast of the British Mediterranean territory, in the Strait of Gibraltar

Iran warns U.S. not to seize newly-freed supertanker

Vessel once known as Grace 1 and renamed Adrian Darya 1, freed by Gibraltar, apparently heading for Greece

2H ago FILE PHOTO: Iranian oil tanker Grace 1 sits anchored after it was seized in July by British Royal Marines off the coast of the British Mediterranean territory, in the Strait of Gibraltar The Duke Of York, The UK's Special Representative For International Trade and Investment Visits Crossrail

Prince Andrew says he's "appalled" by alleged Jeffrey Epstein crimes

British royal says he wasn't involved, in statement released after video emerges of prince in Epstein's New York mansion waving goodbye to young woman

updated 42M ago The Duke Of York, The UK's Special Representative For International Trade and Investment Visits Crossrail AFGHANISTAN-CONFLICT-ATTACK

Groom from horrific Afghan wedding attack says he's "lost hope"

Groom and bride survived suicide bombing that killed scores, but he says he "will never see happiness" in his life again and Afghan suffering will continue

1H ago AFGHANISTAN-CONFLICT-ATTACK message-in-a-bottle-alaska.jpg

Man finds message in a bottle from Russian Navy on Alaskan shore

Tyler Ivanoff found the handwritten Russian letter early this month while gathering firewood near Shishmaref, about 600 miles northwest of Anchorage

12H ago message-in-a-bottle-alaska.jpg Recession Road Sign

34% of economists expect a recession in 2021

The good news for Americans? Fewer forecasters think a serious downturn is likely to hit next year

13M ago Recession Road Sign UPDATED trail-markers-graphic-presidential-4.jpg

2020 Sunday Trail Markers: Dems head to Native American issues forum

This week, Native American issues are set to get attention in a presidential election like never before

1H ago UPDATED trail-markers-graphic-presidential-4.jpg tristan-wix.jpg

Man who allegedly threatened 100 victim mass shooting arrested

Tristan Wix texted about his desire to set world record for "longest confirmed kill ever" and slay at least 100 people, authorities said

updated 41M ago tristan-wix.jpg cbs-philly-matt-petrillo.jpg

At least 9 injured when tree topples from lightning strike

Three people suffered serious injuries — two to their head and one to their back — according to officials

11H ago cbs-philly-matt-petrillo.jpg 68798367-2716448408366572-6892014057159655424-n.jpg

Earnhardt Jr. crash first responders gifted NASCAR tickets

In the aftermath of the crash, video shows first responders treating the racing legend

11H ago 68798367-2716448408366572-6892014057159655424-n.jpg UPDATED trail-markers-graphic-presidential-4.jpg

2020 Sunday Trail Markers: Dems head to Native American issues forum

This week, Native American issues are set to get attention in a presidential election like never before

1H ago UPDATED trail-markers-graphic-presidential-4.jpg Donald Trump

In return to Washington, Trump pushes back on risks of a U.S. recession

Mr. Trump said the economy is "doing very well" and dismissed concerns of recession, offering an optimistic outlook after the stock market's roller coaster week

12H ago Donald Trump screen-shot-2019-08-18-at-10-48-51-am.png

Trump trade adviser downplays impact of China tariffs on consumers

The U.S. trade war with China helped send stock prices down this week, and Wall Street's wild ride fueled fears of a recession

19H ago screen-shot-2019-08-18-at-10-48-51-am.png screen-shot-2019-08-18-at-10-52-58-am.png

Andrew Yang defends plan to give every American $1,000 a month

"Americans will work even harder when they get the resources in place to actually get ahead," Yang said on "Face the Nation"

20H ago screen-shot-2019-08-18-at-10-52-58-am.png beto-orourke-gun-show-2019-08-17.jpg

Beto O'Rourke visits gun show in Arkansas, NRA responds

NRA mocked the Texas Democrat's standing the polls, and O'Rourke responded with poll numbers about "70% of Americans support an assault weapons ban"

Aug 18 beto-orourke-gun-show-2019-08-17.jpg IMDb LIVE After The Emmys 2018

George R.R. Martin: "Game Of Thrones" TV show ending is "freeing"

"I don't think it was very good for me because the very thing that should have speeded me up actually slowed me down," Martin said

12H ago IMDb LIVE After The Emmys 2018 woodstock-cover-burk-uzzle-color-promo.jpg

Woodstock at 50, in the words, and music, of those who were there

A half-century after a mass of humanity converged on a farm in Bethel, N.Y. for three days of peace and music, musicians and concert-goers recall a unique moment for their generation

Aug 4 woodstock-cover-burk-uzzle-color-promo.jpg sting-and-trudie-styler-at-their-tuscan-estate-il-palagio-with-alina-cho-promo.jpg

Sting, Trudie Styler, and a villa in Italy

The singer-musician and his wife bought the dilapidated, 400-year-old Il Palagio, in Tuscany, for a song or two, and have brought the olive groves, vineyards and vegetable gardens back to life

22H ago sting-and-trudie-styler-at-their-tuscan-estate-il-palagio-with-alina-cho-promo.jpg 0818-sunmo-trudistyler-1914441-640x360.jpg

Sting, Trudie Styler, and a villa in Italy

Il Palagio, a 400-year-old villa in Tuscany, is a summer house that the singer-musician Sting, and his wife, Trudie Styler, bought for a song or two. They've fixed it up, and brought the olive groves, vineyards and vegetable gardens back to life. Sting and Trudie talk with correspondent Alina Cho about music, raising a family, and revitalizing a cherished homestead. (Originally broadcast May 19, 2019.)

21H ago 06:49 0818-sunmo-trudistyler-1914441-640x360.jpg 0818-sunmo-fashionphilosophy-1914423-640x360.jpg

Brunello Cucinelli: Fashion and philosophy

In a country where thousands of little towns are being deserted, one village is thriving, mainly due to the work of one extraordinary man: designer Brunello Cucinelli. His company, which makes some of the finest and priciest clothing in the world, has raised the fortunes of Solomeo, restored the town's ancient buildings, and upheld the dignity of local workers by forging what has been called a "humanistic enterprise in the world of industry." Tracy Smith reports. (Originally broadcast May 19, 2019.)

22H ago 04:21 0818-sunmo-fashionphilosophy-1914423-640x360.jpg Two Women Dressed in Black and Crying at Funeral

Funeral homes now live streaming memorial services

Roughly 20% of funeral homes in U.S. offer an online option to grieving family and friends who can't attend the event

Aug 15 Two Women Dressed in Black and Crying at Funeral School Choice Utah

Overstock shares sink after CEO comments about "Deep State"

Investors are fleeing retailer Overstock after its CEO issued a bizarre statement about the "deep state" and "men in black"

Aug 15 School Choice Utah Facebook logo on broken cracked mobile phone screen

U.S. lawmaker joins international Facebook investigation

Rep. David Cicilline joins the International Grand Committee on Disinformation and "Fake News," as lawmakers from a dozen countries seek answers on election influencing

Aug 15 Facebook logo on broken cracked mobile phone screen Real Estate Upstart WeWork Releases Paperwork For Initial Public Offering

WeWork filed its IPO — now meet its We Double

A Wyoming company with a Chinese address and $441 in the bank seems poised to benefit from WeWork's buzzy IPO

Aug 14 Real Estate Upstart WeWork Releases Paperwork For Initial Public Offering 081419-dream3.jpg

Dream Chaser spaceplanes to launch on Vulcan rocket

Sierra Nevada Corp. picks ULA's Vulcan rocket to boost Dream Chaser spaceplanes into orbit

Aug 14 081419-dream3.jpg 0819-ctm-greenlandicemelt-doane.jpg

NASA program "OMG" trying to find out how fast Greenland's ice is melting

Ice lost in Greenland means higher sea levels around the world. "Oceans Melting Greenland," a NASA program in its fourth year, is studying the melt.

48M ago 0819-ctm-greenlandicemelt-doane.jpg ICELAND-ENVIRONMENT-CLIMATE-NATURE-GLACIER

Activists mourn first Icelandic glacier lost to climate change

A memorial plaque was installed at the site of the former glacier, warning that "in the next 200 years all our glaciers are expected to follow the same path"

12H ago ICELAND-ENVIRONMENT-CLIMATE-NATURE-GLACIER screen-shot-2019-08-17-at-10-50-56-am.png

Rescued baby dugong dies of shock with a stomach full of plastic

"Her death will remind Thais and people all over the world not to dispose trash into the oceans," a Natural Resources and Environment Minister said

Aug 17 screen-shot-2019-08-17-at-10-50-56-am.png 081619-lander.jpg

NASA picks Alabama space center for moon lander program

The lander is a critical element in NASA's plans to return astronauts to the moon in 2024

Aug 16 081619-lander.jpg Western Greenland Hit By Unseasonably Warm Weather

Varnish and rubber found in Arctic snow, according to study

The study postulated that the pollutants were potentially carried via air

Aug 15 Western Greenland Hit By Unseasonably Warm Weather teen-vaping.jpg

Teen blames vaping after his lung collapses

As the CDC and state health departments investigate acute lung injuries possibly tied to e-cigarettes, one teen launches a social media campaign, #lunglove, against vaping

1H ago teen-vaping.jpg 0817-satmo-burnpits-petersen-1913888-640x360.jpg

Thousands of veterans fear "burn pits" have exposed them to lethal disease

At some of military bases in Afghanistan, waste materials were disposed of in so-called "burn pits"

Aug 17 0817-satmo-burnpits-petersen-1913888-640x360.jpg grained-salmon-caviar-photos-1.jpg

Salmon caviar recalled due to botulism fears

Product sold in four states is possibly tainted with toxin that can cause life-threatening illness or death

Aug 16 grained-salmon-caviar-photos-1.jpg 15847-964-1.jpg

Tyson recalls chicken patties because of "extraneous matter"

Some consumers reported finding pieces of a mechanical seal or gasket in the Weaver fully cooked patties

Aug 16 15847-964-1.jpg DRCONGO-HEALTH-EBOLA

Ebola outbreak spreads, claiming first victims in a new region

Government in Congo's previously unaffected South Kivu province says 1 person there has died and their child is being treated

Aug 16 DRCONGO-HEALTH-EBOLA Recession Road Sign

34% of economists expect a recession in 2021

The good news for Americans? Fewer forecasters think a serious downturn is likely to hit next year

13M ago Recession Road Sign Stock Market Graph next to a 1 dollar bill

Recession fears are back — should you be worried?

The longest economic expansion in U.S. history suddenly looks wobbly — but here's why it's too soon to freak

Aug 16 Stock Market Graph next to a 1 dollar bill Baseball player expression losing sucks

U.S. kids are quitting sports amid rising costs, inequality

Youth sports participation is rising among richer families, as children lower down the ladder exit the field

Aug 15 Baseball player expression losing sucks istock16795721large.jpg

If black families had white wealth, economy would be $1.5 trillion bigger

The typical white family in America has 10 times as much as the typical black family—and that hurts everyone

Aug 15 istock16795721large.jpg teen-vaping.jpg

Teen blames vaping after his lung collapses

As the CDC and state health departments investigate acute lung injuries possibly tied to e-cigarettes, one teen launches a social media campaign, #lunglove, against vaping

1H ago teen-vaping.jpg 0819-ctm-shootingplotarrests-oliver-1914833-640x360.jpg

Crime

Police charge Ohio man with plotting attack on Jewish center

An avowed white nationalist is expecting to be arraigned today in Ohio after allegedly plotting a mass shooting against Jews. Police arrested 20-year-old James Reardon. At least two more alleged shooting plots in other states have been broken up in the past week. Meg Oliver reports.

1H ago 02:44 0819-ctm-shootingplotarrests-oliver-1914833-640x360.jpg ap6608010465.jpg

America's deadliest mass shootings

These are the deadliest mass shootings in American history

Aug 5 40 photos ap6608010465.jpg tristan-wix.jpg

Man who allegedly threatened 100 victim mass shooting arrested

Tristan Wix texted about his desire to set world record for "longest confirmed kill ever" and slay at least 100 people, authorities said

updated 41M ago tristan-wix.jpg The Duke Of York, The UK's Special Representative For International Trade and Investment Visits Crossrail

Prince Andrew says he's "appalled" by alleged Jeffrey Epstein crimes

British royal says he wasn't involved, in statement released after video emerges of prince in Epstein's New York mansion waving goodbye to young woman

updated 42M ago The Duke Of York, The UK's Special Representative For International Trade and Investment Visits Crossrail marijuana-jalapeno-shipment.png

$2.3 million worth of marijuana seized in shipment of jalapeños

Nearly 4 tons of the drug was found among the peppers at the Otay Mesa cargo facility in San Diego on Thursday

11H ago marijuana-jalapeno-shipment.png cbsn-fusion-nasa-says-it-is-planning-on-sending-humans-back-to-the-moon-by-2024-thumbnail-1913783-640x360.jpg

Space

NASA's step forward in new moon plan

NASA has moved a step closer in resuming human space missions since the program was shuttered in 2011. CBS News' Marc Liverman reports from Huntsville, Alabama, where NASA announced it will manage the building of the new human lunar lander.

17H ago 01:49 cbsn-fusion-nasa-says-it-is-planning-on-sending-humans-back-to-the-moon-by-2024-thumbnail-1913783-640x360.jpg 081619-lander.jpg

NASA picks Alabama space center for moon lander program

The lander is a critical element in NASA's plans to return astronauts to the moon in 2024

Aug 16 081619-lander.jpg cbsn-fusion-milky-way-black-hole-emits-mysterious-light-flare-thumbnail-1912999-640x360.jpg

Milky Way black hole emits mysterious light flare

Scientists spot a flare of light coming from a black hole in the Milky Way. Syracuse University physics professor Duncan Brown explains to CBSN how the mysterious event may have occurred.

Aug 15 06:27 cbsn-fusion-milky-way-black-hole-emits-mysterious-light-flare-thumbnail-1912999-640x360.jpg 081419-dream3.jpg

Dream Chaser spaceplanes to launch on Vulcan rocket

Sierra Nevada Corp. picks ULA's Vulcan rocket to boost Dream Chaser spaceplanes into orbit

Aug 14 081419-dream3.jpg The supermassive black hole located 26,000 light years from Earth in the center of the Milky Way.

Our galaxy's black hole suddenly flashed a bright light

Scientists called the flashes "unprecedented"

Aug 15 The supermassive black hole located 26,000 light years from Earth in the center of the Milky Way. corbett-1.jpg

Jason Corbett murder: A look at the evidence

In August 2015, former FBI agent Tom Martens and his daughter Molly Corbett admitted killing her Irish-born husband Jason Corbett, insisting they beat him in self-defense with a brick paver and a baseball bat because Jason was choking Molly and threatening to kill her

Aug 17 11 photos corbett-1.jpg Ashley Ellerin, left, Tricia Pacaccio, center, and Maria Bruno.

Michael Gargiulo case: Stabbing deaths of three women linked to suspected serial killer

Investigators link murders of Tricia Pacaccio, Ashley Ellerin and Maria Bruno to same suspect: Michael Gargiulo

Aug 15 13 photos Ashley Ellerin, left, Tricia Pacaccio, center, and Maria Bruno.  1slide-the-worst-movies-of-2019-ranked.jpg

The worst movies of 2019

The worst films of the year star big name actors, including Keanu Reeves, Anne Hathaway, and Chris Hemsworth.

Aug 9 51 photos 1slide-the-worst-movies-of-2019-ranked.jpg jake-barlow-oddities-and-curiosities-expo-39.jpg

The Oddities & Curiosities Expo

A traveling exhibition of gothic and occult art, sideshow performers, and bizarre specimens stopped outside Chicago, where CBS News photographer Jake Barlow took in the odd sights

Jul 22 24 photos jake-barlow-oddities-and-curiosities-expo-39.jpg gettyimages-486106944.jpg

New York's Central Park

America's first major landscaped public park, the 840-acre park in Manhattan welcomes more than 37 million visitors every year

Jul 21 25 photos gettyimages-486106944.jpg 0819-ctm-3mealsiowa-okeefe-replace-1914982-640x360.jpg

Popular

Three Meals: What matters to Iowa voters

In our continuing series on battleground state voters, "Three Meals in a Day," political correspondent Ed O'Keefe reports from Sioux City, Iowa, to sample what is on prospective voters' minds.

updated 2M ago 06:34 0819-ctm-3mealsiowa-okeefe-replace-1914982-640x360.jpg 0819-ctm-righttorepair-1914975-640x360.jpg

Proposed "Right to Repair" laws on smartphone fixes

Twenty states are considering so-called "Right to Repair" bills. The Federal Trade Commission is asking for public comments on whether people should be able to get their electronics fixed by a third party without voiding their warranties. CNET senior managing editor Dan Ackerman joins "CBS This Morning" to discuss the new bills.

updated 13M ago 03:44 0819-ctm-righttorepair-1914975-640x360.jpg 0819-ctm-stacyabrams-1914955-640x360.jpg

Stacey Abrams on voter suppression and election interference

Stacey Abrams, who ran for governor of Georgia in 2018, said the election (which she lost) was marred by widespread reports of irregularities. Her new organization, Fair Fight 2020, is working to ensure that all voters have access to the polls, and to advocate for election reform at all levels. She visited "CBS This Morning" to talk about raising awareness of voter suppression and election interference.

updated 13M ago 05:57 0819-ctm-stacyabrams-1914955-640x360.jpg master-farming-climate-1920x1080notyt-1898130-640x360.jpg

A climate reckoning in the heartland

A historic flood in March 2019 left much of America's heartland under water. Grain farmers already struggling to bounce back from the Chinese trade war must now grapple with the realities of climate change that threaten to change the future of farming forever. Now, some farmers are implementing practices that could potentially reverse the effects of climate change – and provide a bigger profit. In this CBSN Originals documentary, Adam Yamaguchi travels to Nebraska, where he meets two farmers on different paths, both determined to pass their legacies on to the next generation.

Jul 26 23:07 master-farming-climate-1920x1080notyt-1898130-640x360.jpg 0819-ctm-demsiniowa-okeefe-sot-1914946-640x360.jpg

Democratic contenders stump in Iowa

Democratic presidential candidates are in Iowa talking about issues on the minds of the state's voters. Political correspondent Ed O’Keefe reports from Sioux City.

updated 19M ago 01:27 0819-ctm-demsiniowa-okeefe-sot-1914946-640x360.jpg