What is the polar vortex and is global warming to blame?
By Jeff Berardelli
/ CBS News
Forecasters say millions of people in the Midwest and Great Lakes will see record-shattering wind chills from 40 to 65 degrees below zero this week — cold so extreme it could cause frostbite on exposed skin in five minutes or less. Some 100 million people will experience temperatures near or below zero. Here's what you need to know about the polar vortex behind the deep freeze.
What is the polar vortex?
The frigid air will come from a brief visit by the polar vortex — which is a real meteorological phenomenon, not just a sensational headline. It's a whirling mass of cold air circulating in the mid- to upper-levels of the atmosphere, present every winter.
It usually stays closer to the poles but sometimes breaks apart, sending chunks of Arctic air southward into the U.S. during winter.
This week's particularly cold outbreak may be explained by the relative lack of cold air so far this winter in the eastern U.S. Instead of the cold air bleeding south a little at a time, it's coming all at once.
How cold will it get?
The polar vortex will result in some shockingly cold temperatures this week. The National Weather Service in Chicago forecasts it will be the coldest Arctic outbreak in 25 years and perhaps since records have been kept.
Wednesday's high temperature in Chicago is forecast to be 12 below zero. Low temperatures from 5 to 15 below zero are likely in Indianapolis, Detroit, Cleveland, Buffalo, Albany and Burlington with wind chills as low as 40 below Thursday morning.
The worst impacts will spread from the Upper Midwest Tuesday, through the Great Lakes Wednesday and into the Northeast by Thursday.
If there's any saving grace to this current bitter blast, it's that the mass of cold air won't penetrate very far south, with the core staying over the northern third of the nation. Temperatures in central and South Florida will stay above 40 degrees.
How long will the cold last?
The cold blast won't last very long. The coldest air will be in retreat by Friday. By Sunday temperatures will back in the 50s in parts of the Ohio Valley — feeling like 100 degrees warmer than this week's lowest wind chills.
Try thinking warm thoughts… After the polar vortex passes, by Sunday, temperatures will be 75 degrees warmer in parts of the Ohio Valley and Midwest, feeling like 100 warmer!! pic.twitter.com/vmtsWNytav
— Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) January 29, 2019
Is the polar vortex connected to climate change?
A counterintuitive theory about the polar vortex is gaining ground among some in the climate science community: Regional cold air outbreaks may be getting an "assist" from global warming. While it may not seem to make sense at first glance, scientifically it's consistent with the extremes expected from climate change.
Overall, Earth is warming due to climate change, but areas near the North Pole are warming more than 2 times faster than the rest of the globe. This "Arctic Amplification" is especially pronounced in winter.
When warm air invades the Arctic Circle, it weakens the polar vortex, displacing cold air masses southward into Europe, Asia and the United States. You might think of it as a once tight-knit circulation unraveling, slinging pieces of cold air outward.
Evidence for this was presented in a research paper published in the Journal of the American Meteorological Society. Essentially, it suggests climate change can contribute to a more extreme, wavy jet stream, hurling cold air masses farther south.
First published on January 29, 2019
© 2019 CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Jeff Berardelli
Meteorologist Jeff Berardelli is a CBS News Climate & Weather Contributor. Follow him on Twitter @WeatherProf.
Polar vortex's possible boost from global warming
Some scientists think the natural phenomenon bringing brutally cold weather to much of the nation has an unlikely helper
updated 4M ago
Gamestop shares plunge after it pulls plug on finding a buyer
Like many other brick-and-mortar retailers, video game merchant has been hurt by surge in ecommerce
updated 15M ago
Houston police chief giving update on wounded officers
Five Houston police officers injured in gunbattle during attempt to serve search warrant
updated 23M ago
Video shows 3-year-old girl falling from 16-foot border wall
The girl was traveling with a group of people from Guatemala, CBP said
updated 45M ago
Roger Stone pleads not guilty—live updates
The president's longtime associate, through his attorney, entered a not guilty plea
updated 4M ago
Roger Stone pleads not guilty—live updates
The president's longtime associate, through his attorney, entered a not guilty plea
updated 4M ago
Intelligence chiefs provide updates on worldwide threats — live updates
FBI's Chris Wray and DNI Dan Coats are testifying before the Senate Intelligence Committee
updated 49M ago
Jeff Flake: "I will not be a candidate" in 2020
The former Republican senator who emerged as an outspoken Trump critic is joining CBS News as a contributor
updated 21M ago
Howard Schultz on a 2020 run: "I think I can beat the system"
Democrats and other critics of President Trump are urging the former Starbucks chairman and CEO to reconsider his potential plans for 2020
2H ago
"5,000 troops to Colombia"? Nation responds to Bolton's note
Foreign Minister Carlos Holmes said Colombia does not know the "importance and reason" for Bolton's note
3H ago
Video shows 3-year-old girl falling from 16-foot border wall
The girl was traveling with a group of people from Guatemala, CBP said
updated 45M ago
Deaths mount as arrests sought over Brazil dam collapse
Police issue 5 warrants, reportedly for employees of mining giant Vale which owns the dam that failed, killing at least 65 people
2H ago
"5,000 troops to Colombia"? Nation responds to Bolton's note
Foreign Minister Carlos Holmes said Colombia does not know the "importance and reason" for Bolton's note
3H ago
Deaths mount as U.S. ups pressure on Venezuela's Maduro
United Nations says 40 people have been killed and hundreds more arrested as U.S. tightens financial noose on embattled president
3H ago
Pakistani court ends Christian woman's legal nightmare
Aasia Bibi had been on death row for insulting Islam, and even after acquittal she was force to live in hiding; now she is free to leave the country
5H ago
Free "Black Panther" screenings for Black History Month
Disney said the film will be shown at 250 participating AMC locations nationwide the first week in February
1H ago
"This Is Us" star sells Girl Scout cookies at SAG Awards
The 11-year-old earned a Screen Actors Guild Award – and a badge, too
17H ago
How to watch the 2019 Super Bowl
The New England Patriots will face the Los Angeles Rams in Atlanta in Super Bowl LIII — here's everything you need to know
8H ago
Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga sing "Shallow" in surprise performance
"So, I'm gonna be a little chance-y … Yo Bradley, you wanna come up and do this one?" Gaga asked during her "Enigma" performance Saturday night at Park MGM resort
Jan 28
XXXTentacion's son born 7 months after rapper's death in Florida
Rapper's girlfriend Jenesis Sanchez gave birth Saturday to baby boy Gekyume Onfroy
Jan 27
Polar vortex's possible boost from global warming
Some scientists think the natural phenomenon bringing brutally cold weather to much of the nation has an unlikely helper
updated 4M ago
Apple FaceTime bug turns your iPhone into hot mic
Apple spokesperson said, "We're aware of this issue and we have identified a fix that will be released in a software update later this week"
8H ago
Apple, Facebook and other tech giants face critical week
High-tech industry in the spotlight this week as investors look for signs that growth is holding up
20H ago
Meet the man behind a third of what's on Wikipedia
Steven Pruitt has made nearly 3 million edits on Wikipedia and written 35,000 original articles — all for free
Jan 27
Amazon facial technology shows bias, researchers say
Facial-detection technology that Amazon markets to law enforcement often misidentifies women, particularly those with darker skin, according to new research
Jan 25
Growing measles outbreak in Washington spreading fear among parents
Washington state has declared a public health emergency, with more than 50 places confirmed as a "public exposure location"
3H ago
Lowering blood pressure could cut risk of memory issues, study finds
The study looked at the effect of more intensive blood pressure control and risk of developing mild cognitive impairment
16H ago
Possible listeria contamination sparks fruit recall
Thousands of pieces of fruit recalled in 18 states because they may be contaminated with harmful bacteria listeria
21H ago
Vaping among teens, kids "threatens five decades" of gains, experts say
American Academy of Pediatrics says 20% of high school students, 5% of middle school students use e-cigarettes, call for more federal regulation
Jan 28
Their twins' medical costs top $1 million. Can GoFundMe help?
Some 250,000 GoFundMe campaigns have been set up to raise money for people facing steep health care costs
18H ago
Gamestop shares plunge after it pulls plug on finding a buyer
Like many other brick-and-mortar retailers, video game merchant has been hurt by surge in ecommerce
updated 15M ago
40% of Americans only one missed paycheck away from poverty
Many otherwise middle-class people are "liquid-asset poor," meaning they can't withstand even a brief financial shock
updated 38M ago
Women-centric workspaces are on the rise
Many predate the #MeToo movement, but this "safe space" trend is now gaining strength nationwide
2H ago
U.S.-China trade talks could be complicated by Huawei charges
Criminal charges against the Chinese tech giant may muddy trade talks intended to defuse the trade war
2H ago
Laid off? You may not get paid for unused time off
As workers who just lost their jobs at BuzzFeed learned, whether you get paid depends on what state you live in
updated 39M ago
Houston police chief giving update on wounded officers
Five Houston police officers injured in gunbattle during attempt to serve search warrant
updated 23M ago
Cop charged in Russian roulette death appears injured in mugshot
Nathaniel Hendren is in custody three days after he was charged with involuntary manslaughter in the shooting death of Katlyn Alix
3H ago
Passenger stabs, kills pregnant Lyft driver in Tempe, Ariz.
Police arrested suspect some 133 miles away after, they say, he stole her SUV, which they think was the motive for the attack
2H ago
Will El Chapo testify in his own defense?
Defense attorneys have raised the possibility of calling "El Chapo" as a witness
19H ago
Wild road rage incident caught on camera
The man on the hood is grateful a fellow driver with a gun finally helped stop the SUV
Jan 28